Monday, January 16, 2012

Heads and Tails Discuss the Element of Chance

"I'm almost positive it's going to land on me."
"Well, it's fifty-fifty."
"Uhhh not really."
"What are you talking about?  It's fifty-fifty.  Everyone knows it's fifty-fifty.  That's why we get flipped.  We're the symbol of equal opportunity and chance."
"But, okay, and this might just be me, but--Do you know that moment when somebody flips us, and we're up in the air, and you just--you just sort of know which one of us it's going to land on?"
"I never know where it's going to land."
"Oh come on, really?"
"Really.  I never know.  Not until we land."
"You don't sense it?  That feeling that it's going to be one of us or the other?"
"No.  You do?"
"Yeah!"
"But what about when we land on our side, and then we spin around a lot, or hit something on the way down?  That must throw you."
"No, I still know.  As soon as we're up in the air, I know."
"How is that possible?"
"I think the element of chance might actually be fictitious."
"You think something that the entire world has agreed upon is...fake?"
"Yes, I do.  I think certain things are meant to happen, and so they happen.  You can flip a coin over it if you want, but it's still going to happen.  For instance, right now?  She's going to get the last piece of cake."
"You don't know that."
"Yes, I do.  I can feel it.  It's going to land on me."
"You just think that because you're heads, and everybody always thinks it's going to be heads.  Studies show that people will usually pick heads over tails."
"Because heads usually wins."
"No, it doesn't.  It's fifty-fifty."
"Theoretically maybe, but in reality--we know there's really no such thing as chance."
"How can you say that?  That goes against everything we stand for!"
"That are just too many factors that prove that chance is a lovely idea but a fraudulent one."
"What factors?"
"What about luck?  Some people are just luckier than others."
"Luck isn't real."
"But chance is?"
"She's not going to get the cake."
"So you DO have an intuition about this?"
"NO!  I just--there's an equal chance both ways!"
"No, there's not."
"She's getting the cake."
"She's--it's--"
"We're landing!"

. . . . .

"...Huh."
"It's...me."
"He takes the cake.  Good job."
"But I didn't..."
"You felt it, didn't you?  You felt that it was going to be you."
"No, I thought...I don't know.  I don't know what I thought."
"It's okay.  It's okay if you knew.  Sometimes you just...know."
"Maybe I'm just lucky."
"Yeah.  Maybe you are."

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